New Zealand Exports Hit Record $72.8 Billion Despite Global Trade Headwinds

New Zealand’s export earnings surged to a record $72.8 billion in 2025, marking a 6.2% increase from the previous year despite mounting global trade tensions. The strong performance was underpinned by robust dairy prices and recovering meat markets, though economists caution that headwinds are building for 2026.

• Total exports reached record $72.8 billion in 2025, up 6.2% year-on-year
• Dairy exports climbed to $23.4 billion, benefiting from supply constraints in Europe
• Meat exports recovered to $9.8 billion after two years of decline
• China remains top destination despite political tensions, taking 28% of total exports
• ANZ economists forecast export growth to slow to 2.1% in 2026

The stellar export performance defied early-year predictions of a slowdown, with dairy leading the charge as global milk powder prices hit multi-year highs. Fonterra’s record $24.2 billion revenue translated directly into higher farmgate returns, with the cooperative paying farmers an average milk price of $9.80 per kilogram of milk solids.

“This has been an exceptional year for New Zealand’s export sector, but we’re seeing clear warning signs ahead,” said ANZ senior economist Miles Workman. “Global demand is softening, and our key markets are showing signs of economic stress.”

Meat exports rebounded strongly after bottoming out in 2024, with beef shipments to the United States driving much of the recovery. Silver Fern Farms reported its strongest quarterly performance in five years, while Alliance Group posted record lamb prices in European markets.

China headwinds building

Despite the record figures, New Zealand’s export relationship with China shows signs of strain. Trade volumes remained steady at $20.4 billion, but according to Statistics New Zealand, the growth rate has slowed significantly from previous years as Beijing diversifies its agricultural imports.

“China’s reduced reliance on New Zealand dairy and meat is a structural shift we need to acknowledge,” warned Westpac senior economist Satish Ranchhod. “The days of double-digit export growth to China are likely behind us.”

Kiwifruit exports hit $2.8 billion, with Zespri benefiting from premium positioning and limited competition after adverse weather hit other major producers. However, the sector faces its own challenges with rising production costs and labour shortages constraining expansion plans.

The wine industry struggled with exports falling 3.2% to $1.9 billion as oversupply issues persisted globally. Marlborough Sauvignon Blanc prices dropped 15% year-on-year, forcing several smaller producers to reassess their market strategies.

Forestry exports remained volatile, ending the year at $4.8 billion after China imposed temporary restrictions on log imports in the third quarter. The sector’s dependence on Chinese demand continues to create uncertainty for regional economies dependent on forestry income.

Economic headwinds gathering

Looking ahead, economists point to several concerning trends that could dampen export performance in 2026. Global economic growth is slowing, with key markets including Australia and the United States showing signs of recession risk.

“We’re forecasting export growth to moderate significantly this year,” said ASB chief economist Nick Tuffley. “Currency headwinds, rising shipping costs, and weakening global demand create a challenging environment.”

The New Zealand dollar’s recent strength against trading partner currencies threatens competitiveness, while shipping disruptions in the Red Sea continue to inflate logistics costs. Some exporters report freight costs remaining 40% above pre-2024 levels.

Trade Minister Todd McClay acknowledged the challenges ahead while celebrating the record performance. “These results demonstrate New Zealand’s export resilience, but we must continue diversifying our markets and products to maintain this momentum,” McClay said.

The government’s trade strategy increasingly focuses on Southeast Asian markets, with Malaysia and Vietnam showing strong import growth for New Zealand products. However, these emerging relationships remain small compared to established partnerships with China, Australia, and the United States.